Quick Takes: Prognosticators Agree On the Impact of AHCA Vote for GOP

* When the Cook Report, Nate Siver and Jonathan Cohn agree, it is time to pay attention. First up is the blockbuster news from David Wasserman at the Cook Report.

Republicans’ 217-213 passage of the American Health Care Act on Thursday guarantees Democrats will have at least one major on-the-record vote to exploit in the next elections. Although it’s the first of potentially many explosive votes, House Republicans’ willingness to spend political capital on a proposal that garnered the support of just 17 percent of the public in a March Quinnipiac poll is consistent with past scenarios that have generated a midterm wave…

In light of the vote, we are shifting our ratings in 20 districts, all reflecting enhanced opportunities for Democrats.

* Nate Silver begins by quantifying the price Democrats paid for passing Obamacare, which was “in the range of 12- to 17-point penalty.”

If Republican members should suffer a similar penalty for voting for the AHCA — somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 points — it could put dozens of GOP-held seats in play. Some 33 Republicans won their seats by 14 percentage points or less in 2016; of those, 27 voted for the AHCA.

Here’s some of Jonathan Cohn’s take:

If the political consequences of President Trump’s health bill are anything like those of President Obama’s, the vote on Thursday could become a litmus test for moderate, Democratic-leaning voters who often vote Republican in statewide or congressional elections. Vulnerable members who voted for the bill on Thursday — like Carlos Curbelo in Florida or Erik Paulsen in Minnesota — could face considerable trouble.

* To give you some idea of how the vote yesterday energized the resistance, Daily Kos set up an interesting fundraising project. They identified 24 House Republicans who voted “yes” on AHCA and represent districts where Trump won less than 50 percent of the vote. Here is where the plan is pretty ingenious:

It’s so early in the election cycle that we don’t yet know who every GOP incumbent’s Democratic opponent will be…

The fantastic folks at ActBlue have created something called “nominee funds” that you can donate to immediately. These funds are organized on a district-by-district basis: You contribute now, and all money is held in escrow until after each state’s primary. At that point, the cash is transferred in one fell swoop to the Democratic nominee, who can then start using the money for his or her general election campaign pronto.

Five hours after the House vote, the organizers said that they had already raised more than they had during an entire year for Elizabeth Warren. Twenty-four hours later, they have raised over $1 million and still climbing. That is huge!

* Kevin Drum asked an important question yesterday.

I wonder. Will today’s vote finally be enough to get Democrats—and lefties in general—to finally defend Obamacare loudly and vigorously?

* Given another recent development in the House, that question also applies to Dodd-Frank.

The House GOP took a big step toward entering a fight over Wall Street deregulation, advancing a bill that would do more to undo banking reforms than any piece of legislation in a generation.

On Thursday, Republicans on the Financial Services Committee voted along party lines to send the Choice Act to the floor for a vote…

Spearheaded by House Finance Chair Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), the Choice Act begins by throwing out much of the banking oversight passed under President Obama’s administration, mostly through the Dodd-Frank act signed in 2010. But it goes further than that, rolling back oversight in a way that could dramatically exacerbate the likelihood of another financial crisis, according to experts in financial regulation.

* Kevin’s question could also apply to the Paris Climate accord.

Momentum is building in the Trump administration to leave the Paris Agreement on climate change in the coming weeks — which would put the global climate deal in danger of becoming a largely symbolic pact, rather than a meaningful move that slows the pace of global warming.

To summarize, the question facing the left is whether or not they are prepared to defend President Obama’s legacy in light of the fact that Republicans have zeroed in on overturning all of the progress that has so recently been made.

* Finally, I’ll leave you this Friday with the resistance song that has been playing in my head all day.

from novemoore http://ift.tt/2pPV4Co

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